According to www.aircargonews.net, Xeneta has revised its 2026 airfreight outlook, projecting global air cargo rates to rise 5% to 15% — a sharp reversal from its December 2025 forecast of a 5% to 10% decline. The shift is driven primarily by supply chain disruption following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East on 28 February 2026.
Supply shock drives rate surge
The conflict removed 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight, according to Xeneta’s Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid-Year Update. This shock contributed to just 1% global air cargo supply growth in the first half of 2026 — well below the previously projected 3% to 4% annual capacity expansion. Meanwhile, demand grew 4% in H1 2026, exceeding the original full-year forecast range of 2% to 3%. The resulting imbalance pushed combined spot and long-term contract rates up 17% year-on-year in the first half of 2026.
Spot rates spike, then plateau
Global spot rates surged approximately 40% year-on-year in May 2026 — a level Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, described as unimaginable just days earlier. “On 27 February I would have bet on the Netherlands winning the World Cup before I put money on air rates jumping 40%. Yet that is what happened,” he said. Though spot rates have since plateaued, they remain elevated and show no signs of retreat. Van de Wouw noted that demand continues to outperform expectations: “Demand keeps defying gravity. Despite everything thrown at it, the market has still moved more volume than last year — the engine just keeps running and it is quite remarkable.”
AI hardware fuels Transpacific strength
Semiconductor and AI-related shipments are now the dominant growth driver for air cargo. Global semiconductor sales rose 106% year-on-year in April 2026 — the strongest monthly growth since records began in 1986. While AI-related goods account for less than 10% of total air cargo volumes, they are heavily concentrated on the Transpacific corridor — the year’s strongest trade lane. This contrasts sharply with e-commerce, which has entered sustained contraction: China’s low-value and e-commerce exports fell 7% year-on-year in May 2026, marking a sixth consecutive monthly decline.
E-commerce policy shifts accelerate decline
The European Union abolished its €150 duty-free threshold for low-value imports on 1 July 2026, replacing it with a flat €3 duty per item and an additional €2 handling fee scheduled for implementation in November. Van de Wouw stated plainly: “I cannot see the e-commerce growth engine being revived. There will always be a consumer demand for cheap goods manufactured in Asia, but the extraordinary demand growth of recent years will not be sustained. E-commerce was air freight’s single biggest growth pillar, but that is no longer the case.”
Geopolitical uncertainty looms over H2
Van de Wouw warned stakeholders to prepare for further shocks in the second half of 2026. Citing the missile attack on Dubai Airport on 28 February 2026 — an event he called “unimaginable” days prior — he emphasized that future disruptions are inevitable. “If Dubai can be closed by rockets, what else is possible? There will be another wildcard and, just like the Middle East conflict, it will come at a cost for shippers. Those with live data and intelligence will navigate the next shock most effectively,” he said. Xeneta now forecasts full-year 2026 demand growth toward the upper end of its 2% to 3% range, while capacity growth is expected toward the lower end of a revised 2% to 3% band — down from the earlier 3% to 4% projection.
Source: Air Cargo News
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
