The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates report that the early peak shipping season is ending, with U.S. port imports expected to decline for the rest of 2026. May was the busiest month at 2.24 million TEU. Tariff changes and supply chain disruptions drove retailers to pull forward orders. Consumer spending remains resilient. Full-year 2026 imports are projected at 25.5 million TEU, up 0.1% from 2025.
According to DC Velocity, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates released the Global Port Tracker report on August 7, 2026, indicating that the early peak shipping season is winding down, with import volumes at major U.S. container ports expected to remain high this month before declining for the rest of 2026.
Early Peak Season Driven by Tariffs and Disruptions
The peak shipping season, historically occurring in late summer or fall, has shifted earlier in recent years due to supply chain disruptions and anticipated tariff increases. This year, the busiest month was May, when ports handled 2.24 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said: “We had an early peak season this year as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariff changes in late July and responded to other uncertainties in the supply chain like the ongoing disruption brought by the conflict in Iran.”
“One round of tariffs has been replaced with another, but retailers will be well stocked for the coming holiday season. Retailers know how to adapt to shifting situations and are well prepared to meet consumers’ demand for affordability and choice.” — Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President
Tariff conditions have shifted rapidly: temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs that took effect in February expired on July 23, but new 10% to 12.5% Section 301 tariffs took effect the next day, covering 60 economies and affecting 99% of U.S. imports.
Consumer Spending Resilient Despite Pressures
Despite cost-of-living pressures, consumer spending has remained resilient. Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, noted: “Consumers might have been expected to become more cautious as cost-of-living pressures persist. Even so, consumer spending has remained resilient despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty.”
“Consumers might have been expected to become more cautious as cost-of-living pressures persist. Even so, consumer spending has remained resilient despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty.” — Ben Hackett, Founder, Hackett Associates
Port Volume Data and Forecasts
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.23 million TEU in June, up 13.2% from a year earlier but down 0.7% from May. The first half of 2026 totaled 12.7 million TEU, up 1.1% from the same period in 2025.
July is projected at 2.21 million TEU, down 7.6% year over year, and August at 2.22 million TEU, down 4.2%. September is forecast at 2.16 million TEU, up 2.8%; October at 2.13 million, up 2.7%; November at 2.03 million, up 0.3%; and December at 2.06 million, up 2.5%.
For the full year 2026, imports are expected to total 25.5 million TEU, up 0.1% from last year. In 2025, imports totaled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
Implications for Supply Chain Professionals
The early peak season underscores the need for supply chain flexibility amid tariff volatility and geopolitical disruptions. Retailers have adapted by pulling forward orders, and ports have managed to spread volumes, reducing congestion risks. As the report indicates, shippers should anticipate steady import levels through the fall, with a gradual decline into the holiday season.
Source: DC Velocity
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
