Escalating conflict among Iran, the U.S., and Israel is disrupting 2026 air cargo forecasts, despite a 6% year-over-year demand rise in February. Key Middle East corridors—critical for pharmaceuticals and retail shipments—are now constrained, prompting carriers like Emirates SkyCargo to limit freighter operations. Rerouting has added 12–24 hours to transit times and raised fuel surcharges up to 18%. Seventy-three percent of large shippers have activated secondary routing, and 41% increased safety stock by at least 15%. Regulatory bodies have issued updated overflight restrictions effective March 2026.
According to Supply Chain Dive, escalating military tensions between Iran, the U.S., and Israel are disrupting previously stable air cargo forecasts for 2026 — just as global demand had registered a 6% year-over-year rise in February, per a March 5 Xeneta report.
Air cargo resilience under strain
The conflict has introduced acute uncertainty into key Middle East air corridors that carry time-sensitive pharmaceuticals and high-value retail shipments. Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw of Xeneta noted that early 2026 indicators were promising before geopolitical escalation altered the trajectory.
“If we only had February’s data to focus on, we would say the start of the year has been encouraging for the air cargo market. Now, the stakes are raised.” — Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer, Xeneta
Emirates SkyCargo, for example, is operating a limited number of freighter flights on selected routes, according to a March 5 notice posted on its official website. This operational adjustment reflects broader industry caution: carriers are rerouting or suspending services over high-risk airspace, including near the Strait of Hormuz and parts of the Middle East, where flight paths intersect critical transcontinental lanes connecting Asia, Europe, and North America.
Geographic and operational exposure
U.S. air freight markets face particular vulnerability, as highlighted by van de Wouw, because several Middle East transit points serve as essential nodes for pharmaceutical logistics and seasonal retail cargo flows. The conflict directly impacts routes used by major integrators and scheduled freighters moving goods from manufacturing hubs in Asia to distribution centers across North America and Europe.
According to the report, the duration of hostilities will determine whether air cargo volumes sustain growth or enter contraction. A prolonged conflict could trigger capacity shortages on alternative routes — such as those diverting north through Central Asia or west via the Red Sea — increasing transit times by 12–24 hours and raising fuel surcharges by up to 18%. These cost and time pressures compound existing challenges, including elevated insurance premiums and tightened slot availability at European hub airports like Frankfurt and Amsterdam.
Market response and mitigation
Carriers and shippers are deploying contingency measures, including pre-positioning inventory in regional distribution centers and shifting portions of high-priority shipments to ocean freight with air-on-water solutions. A March 2026 industry survey cited by Supply Chain Dive found that 73% of large shippers have activated secondary routing protocols, while 41% have increased safety stock levels by at least 15% for critical medical and electronics components.
Freight forwarders report a 22% surge in requests for multimodal visibility tools since late February — underscoring growing reliance on real-time tracking platforms to manage dynamic route changes. Meanwhile, regulatory scrutiny has intensified: the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration issued updated advisories on March 3 restricting overflights of Iranian airspace, and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency reinforced no-fly zone guidance effective March 6.
The conflict also affects carrier scheduling timelines: Emirates SkyCargo delayed launch of its new B777 freighter service to Tel Aviv by three months, while Qatar Airways Cargo postponed expansion plans for its Doha-based pharma hub originally slated for Q2 2026.
Source: Supply Chain Dive
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
