Ocean carriers deployed record weekly capacity increases — up 12.1% on Asia–US east coast routes — yet freight rates continue climbing, with Shanghai–Los Angeles spot rates hitting $5,750 per 40ft container, 54% above 2025 levels. Blended deals now require up to 1:5 contract-to-spot space ratios, pushing effective rates toward $6,000. New GRIs and BAFs effective 1 July, including CMA CGM’s $7,700–$8,500 Mediterranean FAK rates, signal further upward pressure despite easing volatility.
According to theloadstar.com, container spot rates on the transpacific Asia–North America west coast route rose 12% week-on-week, reaching $5,750 per 40ft container — 54% higher than the same week in 2025.
Ocean rates climb despite new capacity
While shippers welcomed increased vessel deployments, freight costs continued upward pressure. The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) recorded a 6% weekly increase on the Shanghai–New York route, ending at $7,149 per 40ft. On the Shanghai–Rotterdam leg, rates rose 1% to $4,392 per 40ft, while the Shanghai–Genoa leg remained flat at $5,759 per 40ft. According to Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight, only four blanked sailings were announced for the transpacific next week — a sign of persistently tight capacity.
Freight Right, a US west coast forwarder, noted that “rates remained elevated this week, with standard market levels still pushing above $6,000 per container.” It added that carriers are increasingly offering promotional structures — enabling some shipments to move near the $5,700–$5,800 range — but only when volume, allocation, or carrier-ratio requirements are met.
Blended deals tighten as carriers enforce ratios
Carriers are now bundling lower contract rates with spot-market pricing through “blended deals,” effectively raising the average cost by enforcing stricter space-allocation ratios. As Freight Right explained: “To guarantee vessel occupancy while capitalising on high spot rates, carriers are tying low, fixed-contract space of around $3,000 to standard market-rate space.” These ratios have escalated from 1:1 to as tough as 1:5, dragging blended prices closer to prevailing spot levels.
This tightening has significantly constrained forwarder flexibility. The shift reflects carriers’ strategic discipline in balancing load factors and yield — not relief for shippers. Analysts attribute the dynamic to sustained demand pressure and limited port throughput, with congestion in European and Asian ports stranding 3.4 million TEU of box-ship capacity.
Capacity surges but fails to curb inflation
Xeneta reported that Asia–US west coast capacity jumped 10.5% week-on-week, while Asia–US east coast capacity rose 12.1% and Asia–North Europe capacity climbed 11.9% — the largest weekly increases since the Strait of Hormuz closure. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand stated: “It has been a long time coming, but carriers have finally responded to spiralling spot rates and supply chain disruption on major ocean container shipping trades out of Asia by deploying significantly more capacity this week.” He added: “This raises an uncomfortable question from shippers — why has it taken until now for carriers to act when they have endured months of triple-digit freight rate increases and delays in getting containers on board ships?”
Despite the surge, Sand emphasized that “more capacity is always welcome and will help them to get supply chains moving more reliably, but they should not expect this to translate into falling freight rates.” He projected slower growth heading into July — though not reversal — noting that spot rates remain on an upward trajectory.
July GRI and BAF hikes set to accelerate rates
New general rate increases (GRIs) and bunker adjustment factors (BAFs) scheduled for 1 July are expected to drive sharper increases. Today’s Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) shows a 12% rise on the Shanghai–North Europe base port leg and a 12.5% rise on the corresponding Mediterranean route. CMA CGM’s upcoming FAK rates include $6,300 per 40ft to North Europe and $7,700–$8,500 per 40ft to the Mediterranean, alongside peak season surcharges (PSS) of $1,000 and $1,400 per TEU, respectively.
These adjustments follow earlier double-digit hikes seen in May and June. However, the latest 7% SCFI increase for both North America east and west coasts — compared to prior weeks — suggests the market may be approaching a price peak. Still, analysts warn the respite is temporary: with GRIs and BAFs taking effect on 1 July, further upward momentum is all but certain.
Source: The Loadstar
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
