Cargo theft in Mexico occurs at a rate of one incident every 30 minutes, totaling more than 16,000 cases annually, with economic losses exceeding US$7 billion. Only 1 in 25 shipments are insured, and the Bajío region accounts for 31% of thefts, up 7% from 2024. In Guanajuato, Apaseo el Grande reports 6.9% theft incidence, while Querétaro city sees 4.1%. Over 64% of thefts occur in-transit, and 73% happen Tuesday through Friday. Mexico’s legal liability cap for carriers is 15 UMA per ton, leaving cargo owners vulnerable. Driver vacancies exceed 99,000, a gap that could reach 106,000 by 2028. The shift from the State of Mexico to Puebla as the top theft hotspot reflects crime following industrial investment flows. These dynamics challenge the sustainability of nearshoring in Mexico despite its strategic advantages.
Annual Cargo Theft in Mexico Exceeds 16,000 Incidents
According to the report, cargo theft in Mexico occurs at a rate of approximately one incident every 30 minutes, amounting to more than 16,000 cases annually. Total economic losses from these thefts exceed US$7 billion, while the insurance sector recorded cargo-related claims surpassing US$405 million. This figure reflects only insured incidents, excluding uninsured operations, underinsurance, and indirect losses.
Insurance Coverage Remains Extremely Low
Only 1 in 25 shipments is insured in Mexico, within an estimated universe of over 150 million cargo trips per year. This leaves the vast majority of logistics operations unprotected against theft. The lack of insurance penetration is a key factor in the growing financial risk for businesses relying on nearshoring logistics.
Bajío Region Bears Highest Theft Burden
The Bajío region accounts for 31% of all cargo theft cases nationwide, a 7% increase compared to 2024. The most affected states are Guanajuato (36%), Jalisco (22%), Michoacán (19%), and Querétaro (16%). The most vulnerable corridors include MEX-45D (Querétaro–Leon) at 16% and MEX-57D (Querétaro–San Luis Potosí) at 10%.
Highly Targeted Theft Patterns by Municipality
In Guanajuato, the municipalities with the highest theft incidence are Apaseo el Grande (6.9%), Celaya (5.4%), Juventino Rosas (3.2%), San José Iturbide (2.9%), and San Luis de la Paz (2.2%). In Querétaro, Querétaro city reports 4.1% and San Juan del Río 3.0%. Lagos de Moreno (Jalisco) and Morelia (Michoacán) are also identified as persistent hotspots.
Execution Methods Reflect Logistics Sophistication
In 2025, 64.1% of thefts occurred through in-transit interception, 33.1% targeted stationary units, and just 1.4% occurred at facilities. In the Bajío region, 64% of incidents involved in-transit interception, and 73% occurred between Tuesday and Friday. Theft patterns now mirror supply chain dynamics, exploiting predictable timing and route vulnerabilities.
Costs Extend Beyond Stolen Goods
Logistics costs can increase by 20% to 30% due to theft-related risk. Insurance premiums rise, deductibles increase, and certain routes become uninsurable. Just-in-time operations are disrupted, and investment decisions are skewed. According to the International Road Transport Union (IRU), Mexico faces more than 99,000 driver vacancies, representing about 15% of the total workforce. This gap could exceed 106,000 by 2028.
Legal Liability Favors Carriers Over Shippers
Under Mexico’s Federal Roads, Bridges and Motor Transport Law (Article 66), carrier liability is capped at 15 UMA per ton of cargo. This legal framework limits recovery for cargo owners, creating a significant gap between cargo value and compensation. Combined with the fact that 96% of shipments are uninsured, this results in most financial risk being transferred to the cargo owner.
Source: mexicobusiness.news
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
