India’s August 2026 crude oil imports face dual geopolitical risks: Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s Sheskharis terminal have disrupted Novorossiysk loadings and cut Russian exports by 400,000 bpd in July, while Houthi threats in the Bab el-Mandeb have forced rerouting via Suez, extending voyages by up to one month and tripling freight costs to $13–15 per barrel. Russian crude now supplies up to 50% of India’s imports, with flows surging to 2.6 million bpd in July—and potentially rising to 3 million bpd if Red Sea alternatives falter. Pricing pressure, not physical shortage, is the core concern amid a weak rupee.
According to www.thehindubusinessline.com, uncertainty over crude loadings from Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk—following Ukrainian attacks on the Sheskharis terminal—poses a fresh risk to India’s August crude oil imports, while persistent Houthi threats in the Bab el-Mandeb strait have driven freight and insurance charges from $4–5 to $13–15 per barrel.
Russian supply disruption intensifies pricing pressure
Russia has supplied up to 50 per cent of India’s crude imports over the past three years, with Urals crude becoming the dominant feedstock after Western sanctions. In May 2026, Indian imports of Russian crude hit a 10-month high of 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd). By July, that figure had surged further: according to Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling at Kpler, India’s Russian crude imports had risen “from around one million barrels per day to roughly 2.6 million barrels per day”, with July imports tracking near record highs.
The Sheskharis terminal—the largest crude export facility in Russia—accounts for nearly 20 per cent of the country’s seaborne crude shipments. Ukrainian strikes there have already contributed to a 400,000 bpd month-on-month decline in Russia’s crude exports in July. A trade source told The Hindu BusinessLine:
“As we speak, there are two developing scenarios important to track. First, crude oil (Urals grade) loadings from Novorossiysk port considering attacks by Ukraine on the Sheskharis terminal. Besides, traders are not offering discounts for September loadings. So, barrels will be there, but there will be a price.”
Red Sea rerouting inflates logistics costs
The second major variable is the continued threat by Houthi rebels to Saudi Arabian crude exports transiting the Bab el-Mandeb (BeM) strait. Although Saudi Arabia has shifted some volumes to Egypt’s Sidi Kerir terminal on the Mediterranean coast, this alternative adds both time and cost. According to Equirus Securities, tankers avoiding the BeM via the Suez Canal and Mediterranean face voyage extensions of nearly one month.
Longer voyages reduce tanker availability and compound cost pressures. Freight and insurance charges—which averaged $4–5 per barrel before the conflict—have now climbed to $13–15 per barrel. An official with a domestic refiner confirmed the operational strain:
“Saudi Arabia usually supplies crude through VLCCs, but bypassing the traditional Red Sea route and exporting via Sidi Kerir adds to both voyage time and transportation costs.”
Supply buffers and contingency planning
If Red Sea transit remains uninterrupted, Indian refiners retain access to a critical buffer: Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to Yanbu, which recently supplied 300,000–500,000 bpd of crude. However, Kpler warned that any deterioration in security could force refiners to replace those barrels quickly. Ritolia noted that Russian crude remains India’s “strongest supply hedge”—and imports could rise toward or even above 3 million bpd if market conditions and Russian export capacity allow.
The concern for India is less about physical unavailability than about cost escalation. With the rupee weak against the US dollar, shrinking discounts on Russian crude—or outright price hikes—would directly inflate India’s oil import bill. As one trade source observed, “barrels will be there, but there will be a price.” This dynamic is especially acute given that refiners have reconfigured their sourcing infrastructure around Russian barrels over the past three years.
Source: thehindubusinessline.com
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
