The Middle East conflict has slashed global air cargo capacity by 16.7% and doubled jet fuel costs — with IATA’s index up 106.6% month-on-month as of 10 April 2026. The region handles 13.2% of world air cargo, but flight cancellations and infrastructure gaps have pushed cargo space scores down from 40.0 to 33.3. UK airport capacity stands at 38.9, mirroring bellyhold constraints. Logistics UK urges urgent infrastructure investment, citing £392 million in 2025 airfreight trade value at risk.
According to www.aircargonews.net, the Middle East conflict has reduced global air cargo capacity by 16.7% and driven jet fuel prices up 106.6% month-on-month as of 10 April 2026 — severely straining just-in-time logistics for pharmaceuticals and perishables.
Vital hub under pressure
The Middle East serves as a critical node in global airfreight, handling 13.2% of the world’s air cargo volume in January 2026. Its strategic position as a long-haul flight corridor means disruptions there ripple across continents. Since the conflict escalated, widespread flight cancellations have narrowed route options, increased volatility in cargo rates, and undermined reliability for time-sensitive shipments.
According to Logistics UK’s Logistics Report 2026, airfreight has proven uniquely vulnerable to geopolitical shocks — more so than other transport modes — due to its concentration of traffic through narrow corridors and reliance on high-frequency, high-capacity operations. The report identifies metals, vehicles, and consumer goods as commodities experiencing acute trade friction from both conflict-related airspace restrictions and new tariff regimes.
Cargo space scarcity deepens
Cargo carrier space availability has declined sharply, falling from 40.0 to 33.3 on operator perception scales (where scores above 50 indicate improvement). This 16.7% drop reflects tightening dedicated freighter capacity and broader reductions in global air cargo tonnage — a trend exacerbated by airlines prioritizing passenger services over bellyhold freight.
UK international and regional airports score 38.9 on capacity readiness, matching the bellyhold capacity index of 38.9. Both metrics point to structural bottlenecks: limited runway expansion, constrained night-flight permissions, and aging infrastructure. Logistics UK’s policy lead Alexandra Herdman emphasizes that Heathrow’s proposed third runway and regulatory reform of night-flight rules are essential near-term interventions to restore flexibility.
Fuel price surge adds cost pressure
Jet fuel costs have surged dramatically, with the IATA Jet Fuel Price Index reaching 106.6% above February 2026’s average and 119.7% higher year-on-year as of the week ending 10 April 2026. These increases compound existing capacity constraints, raising operating costs for freighters and passenger airlines alike — ultimately inflating airfreight rates for shippers worldwide.
The conflict has disrupted key fuel supply routes and heightened insurance premiums for flights transiting affected zones. As a result, carriers face tighter margins while customers absorb elevated costs — particularly in sectors where speed is non-negotiable, such as pharmaceutical logistics and fresh produce distribution.
Resilience requires targeted investment
Looking ahead, Logistics UK warns that airfreight rate volatility will persist through 2026, tied directly to developments in the Middle East and instability along major air corridors. To mitigate future shocks, the organization calls for timely, targeted infrastructure investment — including modernized cargo terminals, expanded freighter slots, and digital tools enabling dynamic rerouting and capacity forecasting.
“To make airfreight more resilient against these impacts, there needs to be more investment in infrastructure, delivered in a timely manner.” — Alexandra Herdman, policy lead – Multimodal, Logistics UK
Strengthening network resilience isn’t merely about volume — it’s about redundancy, agility, and data-driven decision-making. Without action, the sector risks undermining its role in delivering £392 million in annual trade value, a figure Logistics UK reports for 2025. That sum represents high-value, time-critical goods whose movement underpins healthcare systems, manufacturing continuity, and e-commerce fulfillment across Europe and beyond.
Source: Air Cargo News
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
