Braemar analysis shows regional trade agreements have surged from ~300 in 2020 to nearly 400 today, now representing 60% of global trade — up from 40% in 1990. With 1,621 containerships on order but only 114 being ultra-large (20,000+ TEU), carriers are pivoting to regional fleets. The World Bank forecasts the 2030s as the most prosperous decade since the 1970s, while clean-energy investment hit $2.2 trillion in 2025. IMO carbon rules add $150–$400 per container on some routes, yet solar, battery, and turbine shipments offer long-term volume upside.
According to theloadstar.com, the number of regional trade agreements has risen from around 300 in 2020 to nearly 400 today, now accounting for 60% of global trade — up from 40% in 1990. This surge is driving a structural reorientation in container shipping, with analysts forecasting a ‘golden decade’ for regional and inter-regional corridors.
From globalisation to regionalisation
Braemar, the maritime consultancy, attributes this shift to converging forces: new trade pacts, geopolitical recalibrations, and evolving supply chain strategies. The World Bank’s latest global outlook — cited by Braemar — projects that the 2030s could become the most prosperous decade since the 1970s, powered by artificial intelligence, energy security, and deeper regional integration. Yet near-term headwinds persist: global growth is expected to reach just 2.5% in 2026, and container trade volumes are forecast to expand by only 2.5%–3.5%.
Jonathan Roach, Braemar analyst, underscored the tangible nature of the trend:
“This isn’t abstract. The interesting stuff is in the regional and inter-regional trades.”
He noted that future volume growth will concentrate on intra-Asia, intra-African, Mexico–US, and Eastern Europe–EU routes — rather than traditional east-west trunk lines. This realignment reflects a broader move away from the ‘hub-and-spoke’ model toward a more distributed ‘spoke-and-spoke’ network architecture.
Vessel orders signal strategic pivot
The shift is already visible in fleet planning. Of the 1,621 containerships currently on order, only 114 are ultra-large vessels of 20,000 TEU or more. That represents less than 7% of the orderbook — a stark contrast to the megaship emphasis of the prior decade. Owners are instead prioritising mid-sized tonnage better suited to regional ports, shorter voyages, and flexible port rotations.
Roach observed that “shipping networks built for the last 30 years of globalisation may need rewiring for the next 10.” This includes infrastructure investments in secondary ports, enhanced transshipment capabilities, and digital platforms enabling dynamic slot allocation across shorter-haul services.
Energy transition and AI: dual catalysts
Beyond trade geography, Braemar identifies two additional demand drivers: the clean-energy transition and AI infrastructure build-out. Global clean-energy investment reached $2.2 trillion in 2025, comprising roughly two-thirds of all energy investment. While IMO carbon regulations are adding an estimated $150–$400 per container on certain routes, rising shipments of solar panels, lithium-ion batteries, wind turbines, and associated components are boosting containerised freight demand.
AI presents a more time-bound opportunity. Braemar describes the construction phase of data centres as generating an “AI infrastructure bow-wave” — driving short-term container demand for servers, cooling systems, generators, and electrical equipment. However, the firm cautions that once facilities are operational, AI’s growth will rely primarily on computing power, not physical freight movement.
Source: The Loadstar
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
